Life cycle emissions and cost model for urban light duty vehicles

The growth of vehicle sales and use internationally requires the consumption of significant quantities of energy and materials, and contributes to the deterioration of air-quality and climate conditions. Advanced propulsion systems and electric drive vehicles have substantially different characteristics and impacts. They require life cycle assessments and detailed comparisons with gasoline powered vehicles which, in turn, should lead to critical updates of traditional models and assumptions. For a comprehensive comparison of advanced and traditional light duty vehicles, a model is developed that integrates external costs, including emissions and time losses, with societal and consumer life cycle costs. Life cycle emissions and time losses are converted into costs for seven urban light duty vehicles. The results, which are based on vehicle technology characteristics and transportation impacts on environment, facilitate vehicle comparisons and support policy making in transportation. Substantially, more sustainable urban transportation can be achieved in the short-term by promoting policies that increase vehicle occupancy; in the intermediate-term by increasing the share of hybrid vehicles in the car market and in the long-term by the widespread use of electric vehicles. A sensitivity-analysis of life cost results revealed that vehicle costs change significantly for different geographical areas depending on vehicle taxation, pricing of gasoline, electric power and pollution. Current practices in carbon and air quality pricing favor oil and coal based technologies. However, increasing the cost of electricity from coal and other fossil fuels would increase the variable cost for electric vehicles, and tend to favor the variable cost of hybrid vehicles.     

Adoption of alternative fuel vehicles: Influence from neighbors,family and coworkers

During the last years, many governments have set targets for increasing the share of biofuels in the transportation sector. Understanding consumer behavior is essential in designing policies that efficiently increase the uptake of cleaner technologies. In this paper we analyze adopters and non-adopters of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). We use diffusion of innovation theory and the established notion that the social system and interpersonal influence play important roles in adoption. Based on a nationwide database of car owners we analyze interpersonal influence on adoption from three social domains: neighbors, family and coworkers. The results point primarily at a neighbor effect in that AFV adoption is more likely if neighbors also have adopted. The results also point at significant effects of interpersonal influence from coworkers and family members but these effects weaken or disappear when income, education level, marriage, age, gender and green party votes are controlled for. The results extend the diffusion of innovation and AFV literature with empirical support for interpersonal influence based on objective data where response bias is not a factor. Implications for further research, environmental and transport policy, and practitioners are discussed.     

Asymmetry in transport fuel demand: Evidence from household level data

Models for gasoline demand for transportation activities generally assume that demand is perfectly reversible with respect to gasoline price (and income). The small literature which relaxes the reversibility assumption in gasoline demand argues technological fixation leads to this asymmetry and utilizes aggregate time-series model to find evidence in favour of asymmetry. In this research it is suggested that there could also be behavioural factors behind this asymmetric response, possibly due to the loss aversion nature of human beings as described in the prospect theory. For the first time, household level data was used to understand asymmetry in gasoline demand in response to changes in gasoline price and income. There was statistical evidence that gasoline price and income both can induce asymmetric changes in gasoline demand among households. Specifically, elasticity with respect to rising prices and falling income is larger than the elasticity with respect to falling prices and rising income respectively, which is consistent with loss aversion in gasoline purchase behaviour. There was also some evidence of heterogeneity in the asymmetric responses between urban and rural households. The results have implications for transport-related energy tax policies or subsidies, while the method can be applied directly for non-energy goods as well.     

江海直达小型LNG运输船设计研究

讨论江海直达小型LNG运输的设计要点。以1 000 m3LNG运输船为目标,结合武汉长江大桥下游的长江平流通航条件以及投资和营运经济性,探讨相适应的船型尺度,确定合适的航速以及液货舱型式,对于机型的选择进行分析比较,提出较为合适的船型配置方案建议。     

选择性催化还原技术在船舶上应用的现状分析

本文首先介绍了IMO NOx排放规则,指出SCR技术是目前最有效的应对措施。在介绍SCR系统基本组成及工作原理的基础上,讨论了目前此领域的两个研究热点:在重质燃油的使用条件下和二冲程柴油机使用条件下的SCR系统所面临的问题。     

基于Supramax型散货船北极航道运营经济性模糊综合评判

本文以一艘Supramax型散货船为模型,结合北极航道船舶通航限制,从规范设计角度入手,设计了B级和B1级两种冰区加强下的船体结构,连同非冰区加强型结构一起,就船体结构重量、造价、航运费用、营运收入等主要经济性指标进行模糊综合评判,并对最终的结果进行分析,为船舶北极航道运营提供参考依据。     

基于底盘测功机的整车性能衰退研究

汽车在行驶一定里程后其性能会发生一定的衰退,在底盘测功机上进行汽车性能对比试验能减少许多不可控的因素对试验结果的影响。通过在底盘测功机上对某卡车进行动力性、经济性试验,对比分析测量车辆在行驶不同公里数后的动力性、经济性试验结果,阐述底盘测功机在整车性能衰退研究上的应用。     

公路交通混合所有制经济研究——PPP框架下建立高速公路股权投资基金的思考

高速公路建设资本金不足,特别是地方自筹资金的缺失,是影响公路建设债务风险的重要因素之一.通过政策分析与行业实践相结合的研究方法,分析了混合所有制经济对公路交通建设投融资的指导意义,研究了PPP模式的特点及其应用条件.研究结果表明:在PPP框架下建立高速公路股权投资基金,代表社会投资者以优先股的方式投资49％的高速公路股权,既保证投资人有合理稳定的回报,又解决了高速公路项目资本金的实际到位问题,促进公路交通行业逐步建立可持续发展的长效机制.同时,交通主管部门以持有普通股的方式进行管理,并不丧失对公路的管理权,可以保证高速公路公益性的一面,以及政府对公路收费政策的管控权,从而形成以PPP模式为基础的高速公路混合所有制经济新常态.     

新能源汽车购买行为及其环境影响效果研究

为了考量新能源汽车的推广使用对环境的具体影响,对新能源汽车的购买行为和普及率进 行了研究,同时分析新能源汽车在优惠政策条件下在实际路网中的环境影响。首先,对大连市居 民进行了意向问卷调查,建立描述家庭新能源汽车购买行为模型;其次,应用该模型对新能源汽 车在大连市的普及率进行分析;最后,在道路收费优惠政策条件下,考虑新能源汽车的普及率和 出行频率的变化,利用多用户交通平衡分配模型进行实例分析,探索新能源汽车在实际路网中的 排放影响。结果表明,在低普及率情况下,新能源汽车的减排效果并不明显,而在高普及率情况 下,减排效果比较显著。然而,对于交通领域巨大的碳排放体量而言,低普及率带来的碳排放量 下降的累积效应仍是非常可观的。